I would do 720 + 3 * 70 + 3 * 2

I agree about the Democrat party, but I wonder if the regular people of those states aren’t closer to Canadians in their views. If they were to join I imagine the existing party wouldn’t carry over and new ones would need to be organized.

Just because you see similar effects in multiple scenarios doesn’t mean they are all caused by the same thing. It might be something doze related in 90% of the cases and then something else entirely happening in some specific situation.