All things considered, it has only been about 3 months since Trump took office, I feel like there is absolutely no way that this was just a single craze and from here things will even out.
I feel like until 2028 (or maybe 2026?) S&P 500 is going to look like a roller coaster.
What do you think?
The problem is not Trump. America would be in the same predicament no matter who was leading or what party or what ideology they had. Obama hit the nail on the head when he talked about the dangers of financializing America - making money on money instead of making product. A substantia portion of the American GDP has nothing to do with generating tangible wealth, it is a result of inflating paper wealth - the value pf stocks, the price of gold, the value of real estate, the interest payments from other people on borrowed money, interest on your savings account that is only as valuable as the bank that holds the account. None of this wealth can actually buy anything tangible, except more paper wealth. Eventually, the country begins to look like Musk - on paper, enormously wealthy, but in terms of liquid money, unable to buy very much. Musk has to use his paper asset wealth to BORROW real money on, if he wants to do anything big.
Generally, Trump is not alone. All of America is just running around stupidly cuckoo crazy because they realize there is not a single thing they can do to actually stop the decline. They are in pure panic mode, grasping at anything that comes along, and panic is always chaotically unpredictable except for the nature of the outcome… All they can do is to position themselves individually so that when the country goes ‘splat’ they have a chance of surviving.
For Canada to avoid the splat, we need to put as much distance between us and the ‘splat’ as we can, instead of being at ground zero of the impact.
So it’s like you’re saying that the gold rush AI craze, crypto, meme stocks, property bubble inflation, money printing, uber and airbnb, side hustles and crowd funded health care aren’t as good as a real growing economy?
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Absolutely, You have the concept down pat. They are like a ‘condom’ economy - they give you a sense of comfort, security, and safety while you are being screwed. Except for the ‘crowd funded health care’ - that is an American hangup.
You are correct about the lack lf practical value in the american capitalism, but that is the much bigger picture and while what is going on right now is only possible because of this system, it is happening now and in this way because of trump.
It’s like saying that if I shot someone in the head it wasn’t because of me that they died, but because of the nature of life which must conclude in death. Like, yeah, they died because everyone dies, but they died now and in this way because of me.
No, it is not happening now because of Trump. Trump s happening now because of the way America works. No matter who was in charge, the panic and outcome would be the same. America was at the breaking point, and nothing could have prevented it. Even Obama made that clear. Individually, yes you are correct about ‘If I shot’‘’'. The reality is 'EVERYONE collectively in America is doing the shooting, because ‘shooting’ has become culturally acceptable. So holding the individual accountable for herd action is just insanity. You stop the herd action at the herd level. Changing the action of an individual just does not make a difference in herd action. When Trump is deposed, Vance will be far worse than Trump could ever be. Vance is focused. Blaming Trump just makes it easier for Vance.
Isn’t that just a deterministic nihilistic world view? I mean it just sounds like you are saying that nothing could have been different and that it was allways going to be like that.
I don’t see why that would be true, Harris was very close to winning. not all broken systems have to end in an extreme collapse, it’s not impossible that things could have been fixed over time.
I just don’t think that everything is doomed to fail and that Trump is nothing but a vessel for the inevitable.
If you are in a car, and the tires are going flat, is it a deterministic, nihilistic, view that inevitably, no matter who the driver is, the car will soon have to come to a stop? The choice, of course, is how catastrophic the stop will be - a controlled stop or a calamitous stop?
The trouble with America is that, even if Harris won, the entire American system is still based on an adversarial, winner-take-all system. In that regard, as Obama found out, the system is inherently unstable and unsteerable. Every move Harris tried to make, would be opposed and every attempt made by the opposition to undermine it. Under such conditions, progress is impossible. But even a controlled landing is impossible. No matter how much time America had, the fundamental problem was unfixable without a complete reset. The American governance system is basically unworkable and dysfunctional. The Civil War proved it, and the Civil War never really did end.
America has to split up in order for the parts to function properly again. The two sides are basically incompatible, and divorce is the only viable solution, apart from continuing the fighting, hating, and constant battling. Prolonging the situation will only lead to both sides destroying each other.
In point of fact, when Trump is deposed by Vance, the inevitable split will accelerate. Half of America will never live under the 2025 Manifesto, and the other half will never allow it to be undone once Vance puts it in place.